Friday, January 30, 2015

FRINGE BENEFITS

Good morning dearies and Happy weekend, This weekend would not be a restful one for me at all but it is all good (I think am up for it). Anyway after my hair mishap, I decided to wear a weave for a while so I won't have to be reminded of the chop and all. Guess what I did, I got a fringe. Yep, I look like a doll and I kind of like it.


 In my unique sense, I wore a turtle neck with a unique back. I love a sexy understated look.

 What do you think of my look, yay or nay?





Wednesday, January 28, 2015

NEW HAIRCUT

Good Morning dearies, happy Wednesday to you all. So yesterday I went to the saloon to get a trim and ended up with a haircut. Till today I can't explain the mis-communication that occurred, I said trim my hair he heard cut my hair. It was terrible because I have been growing out my hair for more than a year and this was my first trim ever. Now I have to start all over again *sobbing. Fortunately, everyone seems to like the new haircut aside from moi (regrettably). See the photos below of my new hair (sad).


What do you think of my new haircut?

Cool or nay and I tried my hands at a faux doughnut, it really harder with kinky hair and straightening it out won't still work at this point.


Monday, January 26, 2015

Same Blazer, Different Outfit

Yesterday, I learnt something about apologies. Apologizing is not necessarily for the person you are apologizing to but for you. Dicey ha but it is true, being forthcoming and sincere does not mean you would be received with open hands but you would feel more at peace with yourself. This quote really spoke to me about this 
“SINCERE APOLOGIES ARE FOR THOSE THAT MAKE THEM, NOT FOR THOSE TO WHOM THEY ARE MADE.” ~ GREG LEMOND
Inspiring right? Enough about that, today I decided to wear my Asos blazer again but this time with just a black pant and white tank. It was simple but sometimes simplicity is all you need.
 what are your thoughts? I would love to read them.





Friday, January 23, 2015

BLUE DREAMS

Good Morning dears and Happy weekend, so today I went a bit blue crazy and I loved it. I just acquired a blazer from Asos earlier in the year and I have being incorporating it into my outfit but this is its first appearance on my blog.


  Being Friday, it meant I could go business casual with my outfit. My trusty skinnies (from Only) and my light-weight sweater completed my casual business look. By the way, since I have gotten really big, it was a real sweat to pull up my pants across my hip but alas I travailed lol. Another piece I love so much in this outfit is the sweater. The front is all business and the back is a bit on the sexy but not appalling side.


 What do you think, a hit or nah?, would love to read your thoughts in the comment section. Happy Weekend once again.



Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Jumpsuit Corporate

Good morning dearies, happy Wednesday all. Today, I will be showing you my take on jumpsuit at work and as usual am still on my black and blue combo streak. 

 I have been wearing flat for a while now because of a knee injury but a pair of gorgeous heels can totally work for this.
 
Since I had to be on flat, I made sure to have a statement necklace on and a bold lip to distract from the lack of heels.

 I obviously wore the jacket throughout the day, since it is work period but after work, a switch of shoes and losing the jacket would elevate the outfit to an outing wear.
BTW, the jumpsuit came with a tiny belt but since I wanted to go bold, I switched the belt to a bolder one to exaggerated a tiny waist and bigger hips.

 Hope you love my look, I would love to hear from you.



Friday, January 16, 2015

TGIF PEOPLE

As you all know, Friday is dress down day at work and I have recently being into blue and black combo. I can't really pinpoint why but I have being wearing the same combo for a while now. Anyway, today at work I wore my black delicate and a bit transparent (a lot I guessI top with my ever trusty denim for and all together laid back look.

 Finally, you get to see how big I have gotten. Everyone is either complaining about it or really loving it. There is no inbetweeners but I am already on my weight loss journey which unfortunately is what I do every year around this time lol.

Most of my clothes are currently useless to me, so it's really either I start buying sizes bigger or lose the weight and since I don't have the funds right now to change my entire closet, it would only be smart to lose the weight. What do you think?
 Then I had to take selfies just for fun haha.




Wednesday, January 14, 2015

HOLIDAY SNAPSHOTS

Good afternoon Dearies, Just wanted to upload a couple of my holiday snapshots for your perusal. As usual it was back to villa for family reunion which is always fun (madly fun). Had a few parties here and there, and finally went for Oguta Carnival (sorry but I didn't take any pictures of that). Hopefully next year, I will finally make it for Calabar or Abuja Carnival. I loved every moment of the holiday and hopped it would not stop but alas am back to normal life with a huge belly as testament (now I got to start exercising to lose the belly fat hahaha). Enough of my blabbling, see the pictures below:


 Yeah, I couldn't resist taking a picture with the Christmas tree, nor could I resist dressing up as Santa. It's just part of the holiday spirit. Hope you like the snapshots. Would love to hear from you in the comment section.











Friday, January 9, 2015

NIGERIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2015

The International Monetary Fund, has said that increased focus on campaigns towards 2015 elections is one of the factors likely to divert the world’s attention from issues that would promote the growth of Nigeria’s economy in 2015. Following the economic performance in 2014, the Nigerian economy is expected to continue to grow weakly in 2014 with the growth to be driven by robust domestic demand and agriculture while low oil prices is expected to impact negatively on the economy. When people talk about Nigeria in 2015, the doomsday picture is the most discussed, for the understandable reason that it is the year of the elections. These factors are expected to impact the Nigerian economy:

Financial Market and Foreign Exchange
The devaluation of the Naira is expected to begin to take its toll on the economy this year. Nigerian consumers have not really felt the impact of the devaluation because all the goods being sold in November and December had already been paid for at the old value but come 2015, the impact would be felt and price of goods and services would rise.
Also, there is expected to be increased lending to the agriculture sector as the economy shifts in that direction. Many banks last year had raised funds internationally to increase lending as the recent CBN polices have put a lot of restrictions on the banking industry. However, this is not guaranteed as the banks would also be conservative in their lending as they work on reducing risks. The tight monetary policy may continue into the 2015 and this will keep the interest rate high in the economy
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) devaluation of the national currency, the naira (N168 to $1) became unavoidable because of the reduction in federal government revenue from oil production and sales. Nigeria’s foreign reserves lost more than $3 billion in one and a half months to efforts to defend the naira. The depreciation at both the interbank and the BDC segments largely reflected recent demand pressures arising from falling oil prices and dwindling external reserves.
Inflation
A natural outcome of the depreciating exchange rate in an import-dependent economy is inflation. Cost-push inflation will begin to manifest in the next few weeks of 2015. This will be driven by high cost of production and high cost of imported finished goods.
With inflation expected to rise this year, the apex bank is more likely to continue its tight monetary stance to rein the pressures on the local currency and reduce the liquidity in the market.
Crude Oil
Nigeria is still heavily dependent on refined products when we are supposed to manufacture and sell to West African countries and this has affected this sector too. If the Federal Government continues to emphasise on food production in 2015, that will have some cushioning effect on imported inflation because 60 per cent of household expenditure in Nigeria is on food.
The dwindling oil revenue set against the backdrop of the recent budget proposal presented to the National Assembly (NASS) by the finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, paints a gloomy picture for the oil sector in 2015. The country is known to lean heavily on oil earnings and borrowed funds even when the oil price stood above the $79 per barrel benchmark that was used to estimate the 2013 budget. There are concerns as the current oil price dwindles and currently stands at $54 per barrel (which experts foresee may drop further). This is actually below the $65 per barrel benchmark used for the 2015 budget and oil is inevitably tied to Nigeria’s finances. Would Nigerians need to live an austere life come 2015? Okonjo-Iweala announced to the world that Nigeria would be running a capital budget of N634 billion. Further reports showed that the federal government intends to draw N80billion from the excess crude account (ECA). This is only possible only if the oil price rises above $65 per barrel oil benchmark proposed in the budget.
Macro economy
Slow economic growth is expected in the first quarter of 2015 as a result of falling oil price and distractions all over the states in preparation for the forthcoming general elections in February. 2015 is going to be a bleak year for the economy as government attention has shifted to the general elections.
If oil prices continue to stay as low or goes lower than it has this year, Nigerians will have to depend on import substitution and increase export drive to be able to scale through 2015. If we embark on export drive, we will be more competitive, not only that, if we do import substitution we will depend less on importation.
Also there is need for Nigeria to look inward at other sectors asides oil and gas that could generate more foreign exchange for the country. Particularly, the agriculture and creative industries should receive more focus this year.
Should oil prices remain below $65 per barrel, the country would borrow more. Nigeria has recurrent receipts which must be paid, not to mention unrelenting capital expenditure commitments to its citizens. Logically, by 2015, Nigerians will be left reminiscing about the oil sector. However, Nigeria’s economic response through fiscal policies would go a long way in mitigating the negative effects of crashing oil prices.
Lower revenue generation from oil exports would mean that Nigeria would have to look elsewhere for income to support our bogus government spending. This therefore means that we might be looking at total removal of fuel subsidy next year as well as tightening of tax laws.
Real Sector
As a result of the import-dependent character of the economy, the sharp declines in exchange rate will naturally push up the operating costs of enterprises in the economy.
What appears to be dominating the agenda of the political leadership now is politics rather than growing the economy. Yet, we need a strong economy to support our political process under the present democratic dispensation.
Agriculture
This sector is believed by many people as capable of taking over from oil in 2015 as the mainstay of the economy. The backward integration project is proving a success, as investors like Aliko Dangote, Honeywell, etc are investing heavily in agriculture. Farmers lose a lot of crops during the rainy season. ‘Off-takers’ who buy farm produce directly from farmers include Dangote and this process aids the farmers in securing loans.
Capital Market
With focus on the upcoming election, FDI is expected to decline sharply and high fund outflows are expected as investors wait for the outcome of the election and subsequent reaction of the outcome of this election.
The equities market is expect to react negatively to these decisions by investors as earning are expected to trend southwards as investors take out their capital.
The recovery of the equities market would be dependent largely on the outcome of the election and stability of the country’s currency.
Security
The insurgency currently destabilizing some parts of Nigeria cannot only be fought with military force brute attack but by attacking the ideology of the terrorists. To cub extremist activities in Nigeria, we have to track down and bring to an end the source of funding and arming of terrorists.
Cyber attack and invasion (including attack on organizations’, cloud-based data) and the use of crime ware toolkits will be on the increase this year.
The Army is not fully trained and equipped for this sort of unconventional war and that needs to change. Post security measures should also be put in place for the 2015 elections.
In Summary
Insecurity will remain a limiting factor given deeply embedded socio-economic, ethnic and religious frictions. Tensions will be magnified by the approaching February 2015 elections. This instability will mar economic prospects, as well as slow policy implementation and support weak infrastructure, compounding the economic challenges will be falling prices for the key export commodity, oil, something that saw to a devaluation of the official exchange rate on November 25th, with the devaluation of the currency, exchange rate risk is currently at an all time high which impedes investors from holding the Naira. Country’s inflation rate may cross the double-digit mark in the first half of 2015 as the combined austerity measures introduced by the government and tighter monetary policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will put additional pressure on consumer prices.

Agriculture and creative industries should receive more focus in the year to come. The dwindling oil price will be a major challenge for the economy, lower capital expenditure in 2015 and a higher recurrent spending would not be helpful as there would not be any real developmental spending.


Let me conclude by stating that while the overall economic outlook for 2015 appears pitiable, there is a need to intensify our efforts to address the persistent challenges of insecurity, implementing a spending cuts, infrastructural deficits as well as the threats to oil production such as pipeline vandalism, crude oil theft, etc and looking inwards to find things with which to grow the economy. There is also the need to give greater attention to the diversification of the Nigerian economy away from the current over-dependence on Oil export in order to avoid the current vagaries in the international oil market and their attendant adverse effects on the domestic economy.


DISCLAIMER
While I check for accuracy and invest time in research, I am not liable for any misinformation. The details here should be construed as my investment view and any use of same is at owners risk.  

Thursday, January 8, 2015

THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY; A RETROSPECT LOOK

INFLATION

According to Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, the pace of price increases observed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation eased for the third consecutive month in the November, 2014. Prices rose by 7.9 percent (year-on-year), down by 0.2 percentage points from 8.1percent recorded in October. The slower pace of price increases recorded by the Headline index was as a result of a slower rise in food prices as well as other divisions that yield the Headline index.
After peaking in August this year at 10.0 percent (year-on-year), the food index has continued to moderate. The Food index rose by 9.1 percent (year-on-year) in November, down by 0.2 percentage points lower from 9.3 percent recorded in October. Following the same trend observed in the Headline index, this is the third consecutive month where advances in food prices have been relatively muted. While the majority of groups that contribute to the food index declined, price increases were observed in the Vegetables and Coffee, Tea and Cocoa groups.
Price movements recorded by the “All Items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index moved at roughly the same pace for the fourth consecutive month at 6.3 percent (year-on-year). Increases were observed in the Liquid and Solid Fuels, Non-durable Household Goods, Garments, and Passenger Transport by Road groups. Other groups and Divisions that contribute to the index exhibited slower increases.
The Headline index rose by 0.59 percent (month-on-month) in November, marginally higher from 0.51 recorded in October. Prices increased in most COICOP divisions that yield the headline index prices but eased in the Education, Restaurants and Hotels, Alcoholic Beverages, and Tobacco and Narcotics Divisions.
Year-on-year, the pace of increase of both Urban and Rural prices eased for the third consecutive month in November. The Urban Composite CPI rose by 7.9 percent, down by 0.2 percentage points from October, while the Rural Composite CPI eased marginally, rising by 7.9 percent in November. Urban prices increased at a faster pace in November; by 0.6 percent (month-on-month) relative to 0.5percent recorded in the previous three months. The pace of increases in the Rural All-items index also picked up, increasing by 0.6 percent, from 0.5 percent in October.
The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending in November over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was recorded at 8.0 percent. The corresponding 12-month year-on year average percentage change for the Urban index was 8.2 percent in November unchanged from rates recorded in October, while the corresponding Rural index was also unchanged in November increasing by 7.9 percent.
The onset of the harvest season has continued to bring consumers a respite from higher food prices after food prices peaked in August. Prices as measured by the food sub-index rose by 9.1 percent in November, 0.2 percentage points lower from rates recorded in October. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelvemonth period ending in November 2014 over the previous twelve month average was 9.5 percent. The twelve month rate of change has held steady for six consecutive months.
Gross Domestic Product
The Nigerian economy faced numerous challenges which impacted overall economic activity in 2014. Declines in the real growth rates of economic activity were experienced in the oil sectors. Oil production was less than expected due to security challenges and fall in crude oil prices.
On an aggregate basis, the economy when measured by the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew by 6.23 percent (year-on-year) in the third quarter of 2014, higher by 1.06 percentage points from rates recorded in the Third quarter of 2013, and lower by 0.31 percentage points from the Second Quarter of 2014.
Relative to the Second Quarter of 2014, the economy grew by 8.67 percent in the Third Quarter. The nominal GDP at basic prices for the Third Quarter of 2014 was estimated at N22,933,144.01 million, up 12.06 percent from N20,464,395.99 million estimated for the corresponding quarter of 2013 and 5.51 percent from N21,734,829.86 million recorded in the second quarter of 2014. The economy, can be broadly classified into two output sectors: Oil and Non-oil sectors:

The Oil Sector

The oil sector experienced production challenges. The average daily production of crude oil in the Third Quarter of 2014 was recorded at 2.15 million barrels per day (mbpd), a decrease from 2.26 mbpd recorded in the Third Quarter of 2013 and 2.21 mbpd recorded in Second Quarter of the year.
The result was a decline in oil GDP by 3.6 percent in the Third Quarter of 2014, This was also lower relative to 5.47 percent in the Second Quarter of 2014. The Oil sector contributed approximately 10.45 percent to real GDP in the third quarter of 2014, lower from the 10.76 percent contribution in the Second Quarter of 2014, and the 11.51 percent contribution recorded during the Third Quarter of 2013.
The Non-oil Sector
The non-oil sector growth was driven by growth inactivities recorded in the Crop Production, Textile, Apparel and Footwear; Telecommunications, and Real Estate sectors.
In the third quarter of 2014, the non-oil sector recorded 7.51 percent growth in real terms, lower compared to 8.46 percent at the corresponding period in 2013, yet higher than 6.71 percent in the second quarter of 2014.

Total Capital Importation

The $6,542.58 million of capital imported in the third quarter of 2014 demonstrated a continuation of the upward trend observed over the year thus far. From the second quarter value of $5,803.89 million, there was an increase of $738.69 million or 12.73%, whilst year on year growth amounted to $2,123.82 million, up 48.06% from the $4,418.75 of capital imported in Q3 of 2013.
Capital importation values post financial crisis were exhibiting a strong recovery throughout 2012, peaking at $6,699.57 million in the first quarter of 2013. However, 2013 saw a steady decline in inflows, bottoming out at $3,904.55 million of capital imported in the opening quarter of 2014. This represented a decline of $2,696.02 million or 69.05% from the peak recorded just one year earlier. Despite the steady rises in inflows observed throughout 2014, the cumulative total for the year of $16,251.02 million is still $385.97 million or 2.32% below the 2013 cumulative total of $16,636.99 million.

External Reserves

The country’s external reserve position lost steam falling to US$34.47bn to end the year 2014, representing a decrease of 20.09% from US$43.61bn as at the end of the year 2013. The gross external reserve at the end of October 2014 stood at US$36.25 billion, indicating a decline of 5.3 and 17.9 per cent below the levels in the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2013, respectively. The observed depletion in the external reserves was due to increased foreign exchange sales at the rDAS and interbank segments of the foreign exchange market. A breakdown of external reserves showed that Federation reserves was US$4.47 billion (12.3 per cent); Federal Government reserves, US$3.87 billion (10.7 per cent), and the CBN reserves, US$27.91 billion (77.0 percent).

Foreign Exchange

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, Estimated aggregate demand for foreign exchange by authorized dealers under the retail Dutch Auction System (rDAS) and Bureau-de-change (BDC) was US$4.88 billion in October 2014. This indicated an increase of 14.1 and 17.9 per cent above the levels in the preceding month and the corresponding month of 2013, respectively. A disaggregation of total demand showed that demand at the rDAS-spot rose by 10.6 per cent to US$4.57 billion above the level in the preceding month, while at the rDAS-Forwards window and BDCs segments, it amounted to US$0.13 and US$0.18 billion, respectively.
Under the rDAS, the average exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the US dollar stood at N157.31 per US dollar, compared to N157.30/US$ and N157.42/US$ in the preceding month and corresponding month of 2013, respectively. This represented a depreciation of 0.01 per cent relative to the level in the preceding month but indicated an appreciation of 0.07 per cent relative to the level in the corresponding month of 2013.
At the BDC segment, the average exchange rate, at N169.43 per US dollar, depreciated by 0.5 and 2.6 per cent relative to the levels in the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2013, respectively.
Similarly, at the inter-bank segment, the average exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the US dollar, at N164.64 per US dollar, depreciated by 1.0 and 2.9 per cent, relative to the levels in the preceding month, and corresponding period of 2013.
Consequently, the premium between the rDAS and the bureau-de-change segments widened to 7.7 per cent, from 7.2 per cent in the preceding month. Similarly, the premium between the inter-bank and rDAS segments, increased to 4.7 per cent from 3.6 per cent in the preceding month.
Currently the exchange rate at the FX market closed the year 2014 at N183.00/US$ closing at a dip of 14.61% from N160.30/US$ in the preceding year.

CRUDE OIL

The CBN stated in their “Economic Report For October, 2014” that the Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, was estimated at an average of 2.0 million barrels per day (mbd) or 62.00 million barrels for the month of October, 2014. This was 0.05 mbd or 2.4 per cent lower than the 2.05 mbd or 61.50 million barrels produced in the preceding month.
Crude oil export was estimated at 1.55 mbd or 48.05 million barrels for the month. This represented a decline of 3.1 per cent below the level recorded in the previous month. Deliveries to the refineries for domestic consumption remained at 0.45 mbd or 13.95 million barrels in the review month.
At an estimated average of US$88.78 per barrel, the price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (37º API), fell by 9.9 per cent below the level in the preceding month. The average prices of other competing crudes, namely the U.K Brent, at US$87.51 per barrel; the West Texas Intermediate at US$84.40 per barrel and; the Forcados, US$88.96 per barrel showed similar trend.
The fall in crude oil prices was attributed, mainly, to discount offered by some OPEC member countries to their major customers as a strategy to retain market share in the face of increased output by the US. The average price of OPEC basket of eleven selected crude streams was US$85.06 per barrel in October 2014. This represented a decline of 11.4 and 20.3 per cent below US$95.98 and US$106.69 per barrel recorded in the preceding month and the corresponding period of 2013.
Currently the bonny light crude oil stands at $54.76 as at the end of Year 2014, which represent a 50.73% decline in price year on year.

Capital Market

Available data from Nigerian Stock Exchange show a very bearish equity Market with the Year on Year change a negative of 16.14% to close at 34,657.15 as at the end of Year 2014 from 43,329.19 from the preceding year. The NSE Banking, NSE Insurance, NSE Consumer Goods, NSE Lotus Islamic, NSE Industrial Goods indices declined by 18.03, 2.11, 17.88, 21.63, 15.98,  only gaining in NSE Oil/Gas and and NSE ASeM Indices by 11.84, and 26.09 per cent to close at 358.09, 146.19, 862.96, 2183.59, 2139.15, 399.51 and 1128.44, respectively, at the end of the review period.
The volume and value traded securities for the month of October, 2014  decreased by 38.7 and 66.5 per cent to 7.98 billion shares and N87.6 billion, respectively, in 94,903 deals, in contrast to 13.0 billion shares and N261.4 billion, respectively, in 103,079 deals, recorded in the preceding month.
Meanwhile, a turnover of 1.245 billion shares worth N15.898 billion in 12,018 deals were traded in the last week of the year by investors on the floor of The Exchange in contrast to a total of 1.860 billion shares valued at N12.760 billion that exchanged hands the week before in 13,469 deals.
The total market capitalization of all the listed securities (equities and debt) stood at N16.88 trillion at the end of the year under review, indicating a fall of13.15 per cent below the level in the preceding year. Similarly, market capitalization for the listed equities fell by 12.95 per cent below the level in the preceding year, to close at N11.49 trillion at the end of the review year. Listed equities accounted for 68.07 per cent of the aggregate market capitalization.

Interest Rate

Available data by CBN indicated that banks deposit and lending rates generally trended upward during the fourth quarter of 2014. The 1, 3, 6, 12months deposit rates for November, 2014 rose from 8.52, 9.33, 9.50 and 9.23 per cent to 8.56, 9.70, 9.79 and 9.31 per cent, respectively, while the savings deposit rate remained at 3.43 per cent, same rate as in the preceding month. The average prime lending rate fell by 0.06 percentage point to 16.47 per cent during  the review month. The average maximum lending rate, at 25.74 per cent, declined by 0.04 percentage point below its level in the preceding month. Consequently, the spread between the weighted average term deposit and maximum lending rates narrowed by 0.23 to 16.36 percentage points.

At the inter-bank call segment, the weighted average rate, which stood at 10.98 per cent in the preceding month, declined to 8.98 per cent in November, 2014. The weighted average rate at the open-buy-back (OBB) segment rose by 13.77 percentage point to 11.90 per cent in the review month. The Nigeria inter-bank offered rate (NIBOR) for the O/N, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day tenor rose to 27.96 per cent, 13.78 per cent, 9.63 per cent and 7.50 per cent above the preceding month rate.

Sources:

DISCLAIMER
While I check for accuracy and invest time in research, I am not liable for any misinformation. The details here should be construed as my investment view and any use of same is at owners risk.